Are you serious?

That was my reaction upon reading Bob Elliott’s Vernon Wells-for-Milton Bradley story this weekend. In case you missed it:

“The Chicago Cubs would like to — have to — deal disgruntled outfielder Milton Bradley. And one player they are eyeing as a target destination is the Blue Jays, with centre fielder Vernon Wells going to the Cubs in return.

“It’s early on, but we think this one has some legs,” said one Cubs official. “But they aren’t the only team we are talking with.”

Bradley, 31, who was suspended for the remainder of the season by the Cubs on Sept. 20, has two years and $21 million US remaining on his contract.

Wells has six years left on his contract extension, $107 million remaining, including the $8.5-million final instalment of his signing bonus, which is due in March. Team president Paul Godfrey and former general manager J.P. Ricciardi signed Wells to the contract extension.

The Cubs suspended Bradley a day after he criticized the team in a newspaper interview, knocking the organization and saying: “You understand why they haven’t won here in 100 years.”

The Cubs’ idea is to split the difference on monies owed — Wells’ $107 million and Bradley’s $21 million for a difference of $86 million. Each team absorbs $43 million.”

Of course, the Cubs later denied the rumours. Makes sense, considering it would be utter stupidity to trade for Wells. I don’t think I can properly describe the level of desperation needed to make the deal… let’s go over some of the reasons:

1. Wells has the worst contract in Major League Baseball. As outlined above, he’s owed over $100 million dollars. For six years. For a declining player. Wow. Wells has one of the largest contracts in baseball history, up there with Alex Rodriguez, etc… I get a little sick just thinking about it.
2. Wells was absolutely terrible at the plate this season, but I think most fans still don’t realize just how bad he was. Of ALL qualified outfielders in Major League Baseball, Wells was fourth from the bottom in OPS (On-base plus Slugging), ahead of only Garret Anderson, B.J. Upton and Randy Winn. The good news? He wasn’t dead last.
3. Shockingly, Wells was EVEN WORSE in the field. Casual fans assume that Vernon is still above average in centre field, but he’s actually the worst everyday CF in Major League Baseball. Digest that for a minute… Yes, defensively, Vernon Wells is the worst at his position. I could demonstrate this with pretty much any of today’s advanced metrics, and I’ve chosen to go with UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), which has proven to be very accurate. In 2009, Wells finished dead last in UZR… yes, a shocking decline for a former gold glove CF.
4. Unfortunately for Wells, other advanced metrics are just as harsh. RAR (Runs above Replacement) and WAR (Wins above Replacement) can be used to demonstrate a player’s overall value to their team, using both offense and defense. The 2009 statistics show that Vernon Wells was THE FOURTH-WORST PLAYER IN BASEBALL THIS SEASON. Seriously, only Aubrey Huff, Jermaine Dye and Yuniesky Betancourt hurt their teams more. Even funnier (or sad), those four players (Vernon included) were the ONLY four to have NEGATIVE ratings in WAR and RAR. Literally, every other player in baseball had a better season, and that’s absolutely insane. Technically, Wells should have to pay the Jays to let him play, since he sure isn’t contributing to wins. Oh, who was fifth-last on that list? Alex Rios. You can’t make this stuff up.

So, assuming that professional General Managers aren’t complete idiots, it’s safe to say that Vernon Wells cannot be moved. How could anyone justify taking a negative contributor who happens to make more money than almost anyone else? It’s mind-boggling to realize how far Wells has fallen, and I’d like to hope GMs understand the data I’ve just laid out.

That being said, I hope they don’t. Actually, forget everything I just wrote – Please, Cubbies, take Vernon. That Milton Bradley trade would be an early Christmas present… WHO CARES if Bradley’s a headcase. He hit better than Wells last year, and makes half the salary. But really, this isn’t about Bradley. It’s about Vernon Wells, and the fact that he’s untradeable. Yes, even for someone else’s garbage. Sorry, Jays fans, but it’s the truth.

-DL

At some point last winter, I was talking to my friend Ben about our hometown Toronto Blue Jays.

“Wow,” I said. “This year is going to be terrible.”

Of course it was. Half the starting rotation was gone before the year began, while ownership decided to hold back on spending. Management openly spoke about a “transition year,” trying to temper expectations before the inevitable poor season.

It actually made some sense. With A.J. Burnett in New York and with Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan both out for the season, competing in the AL East would be a tough assignment. Plus, most of the kids would need at least one year of seasoning, while mediocre veterans would be playing major roles.

“Yeah,” Ben agreed back then, as we decided it would be no surprise if the Blue Jays finished with the worst record in baseball this season. On the other hand, we were looking forward to seeing a core built around the kids, because it seemed like the best-case scenario. I was ok with this, I guess. I knew I wouldn’t like it, but I could deal with it.

So why does the season seem more excruciating? Blame the good start.

The Blue Jays jumped out to that nice lead in the first month, capped off by a 4-game sweep of the White Sox that made Toronto look like a team that just might be for real. It was a fun ride, but it couldn’t last. Everything has been downhill from there, with the drop even steeper than I’d imagined. The supposed “stars,” Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, have mostly stunk, while management clearly got into Roy Halladay’s head and derailed a Cy Young-type season.

The worst part is that a bunch of great storylines have been overshadowed:

1. Adam Lind becoming a real force at the plate. The guy had a huge season and will be a cornerstone for years to come.
2. Aaron Hill’s comeback. After dealing with a months of symptoms from last season’s concussion,  Hill is back with a vengeance. Fans in Toronto already loved the guy, but he has developed into a premiere second baseman, both in the field and at the plate.
3. Big years for the vets. Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas have been great since the spring, while Scott Rolen tore it up before his trade to the Reds.
4. The kids have been solid. Ricky Romero is a Rookie of the Year candidate, while the rest of the rotation was filled with rookies throughout plenty of the year. It was actually amazing to see the Jays in first place while starting Robert Ray as a regular starter.

That’s the saddest part about the year for me. The Toronto Blue Jays really had no expectations, but they created false hope with a surprising first month. Fans should be excited to have Hill locked up at great value, while looking forward to a year with Marcum back and Romero developed. Plus, Travis Snider will get it together, while Lind is quickly becoming a star. Yes,  the Blue Jays still play in the AL East, but at least there is young talent on the roster.

If the Jays had started out badly and won meaningless games later in the season, morale would be higher. Look at the Toronto Raptors, who won a whack of insignificant games to close out a dreadful 2008-2009 campaign, but left fans with a better memory for the offseason. It’s not even a great example, because the Raptors were incredibly disappointing all season.

Still, whether or not you think the Blue Jays will be contenders in the future, think back to your expectations for this season. They were supposed to be bad. They are bad. But try to catch a glimpse of the silver lining…again.

-DL

Here’s your bikini of the day from bikinibeat.org:

On Fan 590 Tonight- thanks to Mike S.
- open phones with McCown in the first hour
- co-host at 5:05 is Matt Sekeres
- Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star on the Alex Rios story
- Adam Rita, GM of the Argos
- legal analyst Rob Becker
- Don Banks of Sports Illustrated on the NFL
- Doug MacLean

On 640 with Brady and Watters:

5:10 – PAUL CAMBRIA – PATRICK KANE’S LAWYER

5:40 – BOB O’BILLOVICH – TICATS GM

6:20 – KEN ‘HAWK’ HARRELSON – WHITE SOX’S ANNOUNCER ON RIOS

6:40 – KEN SINGLETON – YANKEES BROADCASTER

TSM TAKE:

Matt Sekeres was great last night looking forward to hearing him tonight. Griffin has been really pointed on the Jays, Rogers and JP, so he should be good to listen to. The Coyotes case comes to a head to a degree today, and Becker is good at predicting these types of things. NFL season is getting close (thank god) Banks talks the game as well as most other talking heads. MacLean has been quite of late, must have been off counting his money. Kane’s lawyer is on tonight (stay tuned for an interesting look at his brackground later tonight). Does any other CFLer get more air time than Obie?? Just how hard are the White Sox laughing at the Blue Jays? The Hawk will tell us. The Jays remain in New York, and Singleton will be good for some perspective on that.

Here are the lineups for the shows at noon:

On Baseball Show:

Mike Wilner hosts
SAM COSENTINO
JIM PRICE (TIGERS)
RUSS LANGER (LAS VEGAS 51′S)

On Leafs Lunch:

Bill Watters/Greg Brady

1240 – Joey Macdonald – new leaf goalie

College of Sports Media Game of the Night:

They’re by far the worst team in all of baseball and have absolutely no chance of playing any type of meaningful baseball in September. That being said, the Washington Nationals are also the hottest team in baseball riding an eight game winning streak into Atlanta to play the first of two with the Braves. Leading the charge for the Nationals are Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman. Combined the dynamic duo have bombed 54 home runs and batted in 159 runs. Atlanta on the other hand is smack dab in the middle of a tightly contested Wild Card race. They sit in the fourth spot and trail the Wild Card leading Colorado Rockies by four games. They may also have a shot at their division. They’re only four and a half games behind the leading Philadelphia Phillies, but would also have to leap frog a surging Florida Marlins team, who are a game up on the Braves. In tonight’s game the Washington Nationals have lefty John Lannan (7-7) on the mound. Atlanta counters with rookie Tommy Hanson (6-2).

Another game to watch may be in Seattle as its game two between the Chicago White Sox and the Mariners. Why you ask? Tonight Alex Rios might be seen patrolling centre field in his White Sox debut. Also Chicago trails the Detroit Tigers by three and hope Rios may help them in their post season push. John Danks (9-8) goes for Chi-town and Doug Fister (0-0) makes his Major League debut for Seattle.

“We’ve been in trade discussion with Toronto before the deadline to try to get this guy,” Williams explained of how the whole thing came together. “And the way the waiver claim was made was to A: hopefully resurrect talks. B: in the event someone else claimed him, we didn’t want him going elsewhere because we targeted him not only as a guy who not only would help us in our quest for the division but future seasons as well.”

Fascinating revelation by Chicago White Sox GM Ken Williams. So the two teams talked trade before the deadline and couldn’t work out a deal and so JP figured nothing was better than whatever they had been offered. I understand the logic. Better to unload the whole salary for nothing as opposed to taking crap back that you don’t want and have to pay for. Still, how does one weak season kill a guys marketability so quickly? Whatever the White Sox offered had to be total crap for nothing to be a better package. Jays had better hope that Rios stays on his current path and never materialize or they will join the Leafs in giving away guys before their time to shine and having nothing to show for it. Not cool if that happens.

TSM

you can read more on the Chicago White Sox acquisition of Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios here.

Kudos to the Toronto Sun’s Bob Elliott for being the first to put together an opinion piece on Alex Rios and the waiver issue.

“The Blue Jays put Rios on recallable waivers last Friday at 2 o’clock and he was claimed … by the White Sox, or so we are told.”

So, it’s the Chicago White Sox who claimed Alex Rios. Interesting. Have the Blue Jays dealt with the White Sox since the Saratoka trade.

“Initially, we thought that if the Jays were going to allow Rios to go, it would have happened immediately, much like when closer Randy Myers or infielder Tony Batista departed. Myers and his $14-million salary were claimed by the San Diego Padres in 1998, while three years later, Batista and his $12 million went to the Baltimore Orioles. Both were windfalls for then GM Gord Ash. Now, we think the Jays are trying to work out a deal for Rios. And if not, they will allow him to go. Working 24 hours a day for 26 days, they were unable to get a trade worked out for Roy Halladay. Can they get a Rios deal done in five days?”

I can’t imagine the Blue Jays can afford not to let Rios get. Whatever they get for him to get salary savings will be done.

“Most have made up their mind on the GM, who is in his eighth season in Toronto and still looking for his first post-season game. We doubt unloading Rios would make him executive-of-the-year material. Would we be surprised to see Rios hit 30 homers, steal 30 bases and drive in 100 runs some day? Not at all. He has the ability. The Jays have a team payroll of $81 million this season and were committed to more than that for 2010 … for just eight players.”

Yes, most have made up their minds on JP. The question is, if Rios goes elsewhere and become the stud, who is to blame? Someone here was unable to bring out his best. Who was/is it?

“The Jays have attempted to move both Wells and Rios since May. If Rios was a bad contract, moving him gives the Jays the opportunity to get out from under it, as well as the room to make some moves. Is it enough of a savings to lock up Halladay long-term? Probably not, but it is a start.”

I think that’s right. This is a no-brainer for the Blue Jays. Finally someone I rely on commented on it. Read Bob Elliott’s full article on the Chicago White Sox claiming Alex Rios and how the Jays should react here.

TSM

You have read LT’s argument on why he has photo’s of JP in his bedroom. Steve Simmons has a retort in today’s Toronto Sun:

” Gord Ash was fired after finishing third four consecutive times with the Blue Jays. And nobody argued it wasn’t the time.

J.P. Ricciardi, in his eighth season in Toronto, will finish no better than fourth out of five in the American League East for the second consecutive year.

And, should he be fired, no one will argue about that, either.

It does get old, all these seasons of spinning wheels, going nowhere.

Ash was on the job seven years, and left behind Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Orlando Hudson for his successor. Twice Ash finished fifth with the Jays, fourth once and four times in third place.

Ricciardi will leave behind Adam Lind and Aaron Hill and Ricky Romero for his successor.

In eight seasons, his Jays have finished fifth once, fourth twice (we’ll include this season), third four times and once in second place, and led the league in excuses just about every season.

The timing on Ash’s firing was appropriate and necessary.

The time to get rid of Ricciardi is now.

This and that

Ricciardi is outraged because somebody breached confidentiality in the Rios waivers scenario. And well he should be. Ricciardi, for example, would never breach confidentiality by going public with trade demands, or making certain large news agencies are aware of his every move, or hanging his most popular out to dry by revealing private conversations. Nope, he wouldn’t do that … ”

Me? I am with Simmons.

I had 2 interesting talks with what I will call Toronto Sports “experts” this week. The discussion was the Toronto Blue Jays. It seems that there is varied opinions on what Rogers will do with this team. One seemed to think that the current Rogers executive team has little interest in keeping the Jays. The other suggested that there is much intrinsic value in having the team and the dome that they are in a hold position. Further, this person said, very few teams actually make money in baseball and that the losses suffered by Rogers on the Jays are a drop in the bucket. Both agreed that irrespective of who the owner is, beyond luck (read Tampa Bay) it will be tough to compete with a 200 million payroll. One suggested, with admittedly no factual basis behind it, that perhaps interim President Paul Beeston could put together a group to buy the team. The other suggested that Beeston has made numerous attempts to hire his replacement but has thus far been unsuccessful. On Beeston, one source said, there is only 1 full time job that interests Beeston, and that is currently held by Richard Peddie! The most interesting dialogue was on the topic of JP Ricciardi. One expert said that in his experience with several teams in MLB, the role of GM is almost equal parts luck as it is skill. The amount of luck in drafting, trading and signing is unlike any other sport, the expert told me. Pat Gillick was viewed as a genius for making the Robbie Alomar, Joe Carter deal. The deal, he said was as close to not happening as it was to happening. Gillick’s management team was split on whether they should make the deal or not. Gillick finaly decided to make the deal and a genius was born. This isn’t a knock on Ricciardi. Ricciardi’s biggest problem one of the expert’s suggested (and I concur) is his ego. He comes across as an arrogant ass. It’s hard to sell the team with that.

More to come from these talks in the days ahead. I leave you with this question. Could you imagine a MLSE hierarchy that looks like this?

BOARD
I
Paul Beeston
II
Brian Burke Bryan Colangelo

In Defence of JP

Before you get riled up and ready yourself to dump on this post, I’d like to make it clear that I’m not going to suggest that JP is the second coming of Pat Gillick.  In fact, I’m not a big fan of JP and his public persona agitates me.  That said; what prompted me to write this post is that I believe that JP is overly criticized – Toronto Media especially love to exaggerate to incite.  It’s easy to make the case against JP.  The team is no closer to a division title, let alone World Series Championship, today than it was the day JP started.  And yes, success is measured in wins and losses.  Based on that alone, the “brain trust” at Rogers would have every right to terminate JP and try someone else.

While I admit that I have not have done a lot of research on the topic, allowing the TSM readers to refute my arguments, I do believe there arguments to support (or at least defend) JP’s work with the Jays.  I’d like to share a few points to see if you too agree that while not perfect, JP has not done as poorly as most suggest.  I look forward to getting ripped with your commentsJ.

Rios & Wells

JP gets criticized for the contracts he handed out to Rios and Wells.  Neither player has lived up to their contracts – agreed.  I ask you this.  What would have happened (at the time) had JP passed on both players and not tied them up?  I say JP would have been severely bashed in the media and both players would have been scooped up and received the same – if not more from other teams.

Trades and Free Agents

Not a stellar record here…but actually a lot of no harm no faul moves on the trade front especially.  Did anyone criticize the BJ Ryan acquisition?  Yes, it’s JPs fault that his arm died abruptly.  Anyone have an issue with the Rolen for Glaus deal?  How about the deal to grab Marco Scutaro?  How about AJ Burnett?  Was it JP’s fault that he didn’t have the cash to retain this FA pick up?  I know, I know….Frank Thomas.  Fans were optimistic but yeah, that one sucked and everyone was suspicious at the time.

Draft Picks

You have to admit; he’s done fairly well here – or at least as far as we can tell at this point.

Aaron Hill

David Purcey

Ricardo Romero

Travis Snider

Shaun Marcum

Adam Lind

Brett Cecil

Marc W Rzepczynski

More interesting is his strategy to grab as many pitchers as possible.  What is the most difficult and costly commodity to acquire via trade or free agency?  I like what JP is doing.  He’s playing the numbers game.  Grab as many pitching prospects as you can so that you end up with some solid home groomed major league talent.  Then use your cash and perhaps excess arms to fill out the rest of the roster….which are cheaper and easier to get via other means….smart move.  We’ll see how that plays out in the next year or two…a time when he can truly reap the rewards of his strategy over the past few years.

Money

The Jays payroll is in the middle of the pack….not awful.  Problem is that they play in a division with the Sox and Yankees.  The real issue is that if JP wanted to spend to put them over the top, he doesn’t have the money to do so.  An $80M payroll is fine during a re-build….but, when ready to go for it….the cash is simply not there.  Rogers needs to hear it more from the fans.  If we had Yankee, Mets or Sox money, we’d still have AJ and who knows who else.  When the Jays won their championships, they were at or near the top of the payroll list.

So there you have it….just a few points to consider when before you call JP a terrible GM.  No, he might not be the best and yes he has a brutal public persona but….in my humble opinion, he has been unfairly judged…..but what do I know.  He has freed up $11M by moving Rolen for young arms and it looks like he’s been able to dump another $10M (next years salary) by moving Rios.  Work one of the young / cheap outfielders into the line up next year and add in 1-3 of the injured arms into the rotation and JP has the makings for a better team next year…..use some of the money saved on Rolen and Rios and who knows.  It might not e enough to win next year but perhaps get close enough that Rogers agrees to add to the payroll…net result, Roy sticks around and they add more talent to put them over the edge.  Okay, the last part of this post might indicate that I’ve nodded off into dreamland….sorry.

LT

ESPN, the outlet that broke the Alex Rios waiver claim story is reporting that it may be the Chicago White Sox who have put in the claim for struggling Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios. In other news JP Ricciardi was pissed that this info leaked out. He said that he puts “everyone goes on waivers” this time of year, apparently to gauge trade interest; however, when he was asked if Roy Halladay was put on waivers, JP said “no”. So, either Roy is not “everyone” or…. it’s not a lie when the teller knows the truth….

I love the headline on FOX Sports on the story:

“Source: Jays’ Rios claimed on waivers, but by who?”

Hopefully if he is such a STUD JP will get a ransom back right? I mean you don’t give away a STUD for nothing right?

TSM

I’m sure people have heard the news that an unnamed team has claimed Alex Rios.

Here is a short bit of speculation, with little to no facts and some logic mixed in.

I say it’s the Mets.

Why?

Not a great farm system, first of all, so it’s a logical move. They can’t trade for a player like Rios, but they can sure claim him.

They have money to spend, so while the contract’s not great (bordering on terrible), they can still afford it. There’s no salary cap – why not?

They have tons of injuries, so Rios actually has a spot to fill on that team. Plus, he’d fit well into their lineup in the future.

That’s about it for now. I’ll say the Red Sox are a darkhorse, along with San Francisco and Detroit. Why? Just my gut feeling.

-DL