Blue Jays on a tear, will it make a difference at the turnstile?

It was interesting listening to the Jays game on the radio last. On at least a couple of different occasion Jerry Howarth mentioned how disappointing the crowd at the TED was. Jerry read of some stats about how the Yankees are doing on the attendance front and stated that (going into last nights game) the Yankees were drawing an average of 34,000 fans on while on the road compared with 52,000 per home game(its the last year at Yankee Stadium). Jerry even commented that in looking at the crowd at the dome last night there was nowhere near 34,000 fans in attendance. Sure enough, the Jays announced a crowd of over 37,000 despite the fact that place looked 2/3 empty (the upper deck and 200 level were especially sparse)

With that in mind I decided to take a quick look at where the Jays are in the attendance game as the season winds down. Most of this info is available at

2008 61 1,729,436 28,351 56.1

So through 61 home games (including last night) the 1,729436 tickets have been purchased for an average of 28,351 tickets purchased per game.

If you take that average per game and apply it to the remaining 21 home games you get:

a season total of 2,296,456 tickets purchases in 2008…

So I was then curious how that would put this years team as compared with the last few years and came to this:

Season Games Total Average % of capacity change from prev year
2001 81 1,915,438 23,647 47.4
2002 81 1,637,900 20,220 40 -14.4895319
2003 81 1,799,458 22,215 44 9.863727944
2004 81 1,900,041 23,457 46.4 5.589627543
2005 80 1,977,949 24,724 48.9 4.100332572
2006 81 2,302,182 28,422 56.3 16.39238423
2007 81 2,360,648 29,143 57.7 2.539590701
2008 61 1,729,436 28,351 56.1
2008 81 2,296,456 28,351 -2.719253358

I was surprised to see that at the current pace the Jays would actually lose ground as compared to last season and dip below the total realized in 2006.

To be fair i then looked at how likely it would be that the Jays could at least match last years total. In order to do that the Jays need to average 30,058 tickets for each of the 20 remaining home games or an increase of about 1700 tickets per game. In this current season the Jays have met or exceeded that number of tickets sold 22/61 times (about 36%). They have done so against: Boston, Oakland, Detroit, Tampa, Angels, Seattle, Cubs, Atlanta, Yankees and Cleveland. Over the last 3 seasons they exceeded that number of season tickets sold 16/20 games in 2007, 14/20 games in 2006 and 3/20 in 2005.

The rest of the season includes games vs the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Rays, Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees. With multiple series vs. the Yankees and Red Sox and the surging Rays, will fans turn out to watch the Jays or turnout and focus on other things….

As JP and PG get judged by the fans for wins, losses and final standings results, one has to assume that the folks at Rogers will be looking at this statistic very closely.

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