I think J.P. Ricciardi is bluffing, too. At least I hope so

Here’s a quick link to a great article on the Roy Halladay situation from Michael Rosenberg. It pretty much sums up what I’ve been thinking throughout this process, in that JP really needs to trade Doc now that he’s come this far. And the fact is, elite prospects are a huge return versus the risk of having Halladay for one final pennant race in 2010. Otherwise, the team can lose him for pretty much nothing (compensation picks aside).

Rosenberg says it well:

“Please, J.P., tell me you’re lying. Tell me you really ARE going to trade ace Roy Halladay, despite what you told FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal Sunday. Tell me you have thought this through, and you know the best move is to deal Halladay now, while he is as valuable as he’ll ever be, and while it can help the Blue Jays the most.

I can only hope, for his sake, that Ricciardi is bluffing. I hope he is smoking out offers with the full intention of taking the best one. In fact, by this point, I hope he already has an offer that he is willing to take, and is simply trying to get an even better one.

And I really hope he has asked this question:

What happens if the trade deadline passes and Roy Halladay is still a Blue Jay?

If that happens, then Ricciardi will have announced to the world that he might trade Halladay, then turned down several very nice offers in the hope that the stars align for Toronto in 2010. He will have surrendered his chips.

This is what you need to know about Halladay: right now, he has more value to the teams that are trying to trade for him than he does to the Blue Jays. Significantly more.

Consider: the Blue Jays owe Halladay roughly $20.45 million between now and the end of the 2010 season. But since they are sure to miss the playoffs this year, they are basically paying him for one potential pennant race, next year, in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. That is a huge chunk of money for one starting pitcher in one pennant race.

And if the Blue Jays don’t contend next year, then what? Halladay won’t come out and say it, but he’ll be out of there. He will have pitched 12 seasons in Toronto without throwing a postseason pitch. Why would he sign on for any more? Halladay’s reluctance to sign an extension is presumably what fueled these trade talks in the first place.

The Blue Jays could then try to deal him by next summer’s deadline, but the haul would be significantly smaller than it would be now, because he would be a two-month rental instead of a season-and-two-months rental.

The teams that are pursuing Halladay, on the other hand, are all contenders. They believe they will have him for two pennant races, minimum. And unlike Toronto, those teams are in prime position to sign Halladay to an extension, because they are contenders.”

I had this conversation earlier today with friends – Do we trust JP to make this decision?

Not really…

Do you?

-DL

Rosenberg is here.

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eyebleaf
July 28, 2009 1:59 am

Still running with that whole “JP is making this decision alone, do you trust him?” vibe, eh? Nice.

Ricciardi’s asking for the moon. Which he should be, for the best pitcher in baseball. If Doc’s still a Jay come August 1st, that means no one was willing to pay that price. And that’s fine. In the off-season teams have more options to move around money, and make another play for Halladay.

Why should Ricciardi simply take the best offer out of “several nice offers,” if it’s not the offer that he wants? That’s absurd.

mike
mike
July 28, 2009 2:25 am

Roy can still be traded in the off season for high return. The Jays can also reasonably ask for major league players during the off-season, whereas no playoff bound team is going to give up productive parts of their existing line-up during the season.

on JP: this is all being done under Beeston’s oversight. Only an insanely good deal for the Jays is going to get it done. If the deadline passes then i think it is most likely that JP never gets a chance to deal Doc. New President comes in before the end of the season, hires his own GM who makes the deal (or tries to keep Doc).

The organizational incompetence has to stop, and people are now starting to look at Beeston as a contributing factor. I imagine a new team president will be here within a month or two, and JP will be gone by the end of the regular season.

fjm
fjm
July 28, 2009 9:09 am

To add to what the other 2 commenters said, there isn’t a general manager in baseball who has free rein to trade his team’s franchise player. If Halladay is traded or not traded, the decision will have to go through Beeston and Rogers too.

eyebleaf
July 28, 2009 11:44 am

From today’s Unwritten Rules by Jeff Blair:

Oh, and as for the hand-wringing about whether Ricciardi’s the man to make the call on Halladay? It’s moot, because this is an organizational decision. Assistant GMs Tony LaCava and Alex Anthopoulos – the latter of whom is a candidate to replace Ricciardi if he is punted at the end of the year – are all going to have a huge say in this deal. Same for Paul Beeston and Cito Gaston, and there’s a constituency in this city that says this pair. Besides which – if the Blue Jays had to go to the Rogers head office to tell them they were swallowing B.J. Ryan’s deal, rest assured the nabobs will be informed about Halladay. So it isn’t just Ricciardi making the call on this and it’s remarkable how many people don’t realize it.

I hope you’ll finally put the “do you trust J.P.” nonsense to rest.

Eggbert
Eggbert
July 29, 2009 4:23 pm

Last night I had a dream that Philadelphia added Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee from the Tribe in exchange for Class A right-hander Jason Knapp and Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson and shortstop Jason Donald……..naw, never happen

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