Toronto Sports Media Morning Drive Lineups

By TSM

Here’s your drive lineup for your listening enjoyment this am:

On 590 with Greg Brady and Jim Lang:

720 Eric Francis
740 Gord Stellick
820 Jon Morosi

On TSN radio with Mike Richards

6:30: Jonas Siegel

7:00: TSN 2 Simulcast Begins

7:15: PIERRE MCGUIRE

7:45: Leafs Breakfast – Darren Dreger and Steve Simmons

8:00: Dallas Eakins – Toronto Marlies Head Coach

8:15 – Win Mike’s Lower Bowl Tickets For Game 4

8:30: Open Phones – How Can the Leafs rebound in Game 4?

8:45: Scott Ferguson /Scott MacArthur -– Blue Jays Roundtable

TSM

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Daniel
Daniel
May 7, 2013 3:32 pm

Here’s a little kernel of hope for Jays fans. Worst 31 game stretches for playoff teams last year (Jays started 10-21):

Rangers: 15-16
Yankees: 14-17
Orioles: 12-19
Tigers: 11-20
A’s: 10-21

Giants: 15-16
Reds: 15-16
Nationals: 15-16
Braves: 13-18
Cardinals: 11-20

(From http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20479)

Kamlesh
Kamlesh
May 7, 2013 6:07 pm

Did any of those teams have Mark Beuhrle?
The average wins over the last 10 years for the 5th best record has been 90(the exact number is 89.6). To get to 90 the Jays have to to 78-51 over the next 129 games. That’s a .605 winning percentage. How many teams played .605 over 129 consecutive games?

Because of the Dome the Jays have also played 58% of their games at home so far(19 home, 12 road). The best AL road record last year was the Orioles at .568. If the Jays matched that with their remaining 69 road games they still have to play .629 at home just to get to 90 wins. A few teams had a .629 (or 1 less win) winning % at home last year, although none of them had Mark Beuhrle. So if they have to get to 90 wins, they have to match last years best home/road % for 162 games(I dont’ know what the best records for a 129 game stretch is)the rest of the way , or increase one to offset a decrease in the other(all this with you know who in the rotation).

Teams in ohter divisions also get a chance to beat up on the Astros, Twins, White Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Rockies,Mets and Marlins for 18 games a year. I don’t know in AL east.

Mark Buehrle is making $11 million this year and $18 and $19 million over the next 2 years. They’re stuck with him.

Daniel
Daniel
May 7, 2013 6:25 pm

I’m not arguing that they’re going to make the playoffs. Just that recovering from a stretch like the one they just had is hardly unprecedented. Far more teams with runs like that don’t make the playoffs than do, I’m sure!

Yeah, Mark Buerhle looks dreadful so far. I find it hard to believe he would drop off to this degree in one year after 12 years of uber consistency. Odds are, I think he’ll seriously regress, but I have to believe he’ll settle somewhere with an ERA in the mid/high 4s by the time all is said and done. Not good, but better than what we’ve seen.

That said, if any of Johnson/Romero/Hutchinson/Drabek can come back healthy/effectively I would be happy to dump Buerhle if someone was willing. The contract is gross, but never say never. Teams have taken bigger gambles on players who look terrible than picking up a 2yr/37 million contract. Vernon Wells is your obvious example there.

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