The Toronto Maple Leafs suffered another brutal playoff exit after dominating the Canadian team-centric division last season. Things go back to normal in a strong conference, and division, overall. Here’s how to bet the Maple Leafs heading into the 2021-22 season.
What Happened Last Season?
After an impressive regular season against Canadian teams, Toronto lost in the first round of the playoffs for the fifth straight year. Montreal edged them out in a seven-game series that went all the way. The Maple Leafs were up 3-1 until they lost back-to-back games in overtime and fell 3-1 in their home arena in Game 7.
Despite the brutal playoff result, Toronto was one of the best teams with a +39 goal differential. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were consistent playmakers with a combined 133 points and 61 goals. Matthews led the league with 41 goals himself (and 12 game-winning goals). The next-highest scorer is Connor McDavid at 33 goals.
Goalie Jack Campbell, who took part of the blame for the postseason collapse, will likely have a leading role alongside newcomer Petr Mrazek. Campbell gave up nine goals over the final three losses of the playoff series. He finished the season with a 17-3-2 record and saved 92.1% of the shots he was against.
Personnel Changes For The Maple Leafs
One of the largest acquisitions was Mrazek as a new goaltender. Mrazek spent the last three seasons at Carolina with a 50-32-8 record.
Spencer Carbery is a new assistant coach that takes over power play duties from Manny Malhotra. The team felt the need to change after finishing 20th in the league in power plays.
Toronto Maple Leafs Team Futures
Outright Winner Props
|Toronto Maple Leafs Odds||DraftKings||BetMGM|
|Stanley Cup Champions||+900||+1200|
|Eastern Conference Winner||+450||+600|
|Atlantic Division Winner||+195||+225|
Toronto has the fourth-lowest odds among NHL teams to win it all and are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Only the Tampa Bay Lightning, who won the last two Stanley Cups back-to-back, is projected as a better team. They are tied with even odds to win the Atlantic Division.
As we know, picking the Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup has been a losing bet for over 50 years. Last year’s squad couldn’t take advantage of being in a Canadian-specific division. They were able to win the division, but they stumbled in a seven-game series to Montreal.
Montreal had 24 wins and 59 points on the season. No other division had a team with that low of points enter the postseason. The only other team to finish with under 30 wins to make the postseason was St. Louis. If you like Toronto in any of these situations, it’s worth considering the odds at BetMGM.
Over/Under 106.5 Team Total Points
Toronto has never eclipsed the 106-point total in the regular season. The closest they’ve come is 105 points in the 2017-18 season. Expectations may be high for them after a dominant run against the Canadian teams last year, but again, things are going to be more difficult in the competitive Eastern Conference.
On a bigger scale, the Maple Leafs surpassed the century mark five times since the 82 regular season games became the norm in 1995. Interestingly, DraftKings has slightly better odds for taking the under on this prop (-105). It’s probably worth taking a chance on that.
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Futures
- Auston Matthews (+300)
- John Tavares (+4000)
- William Nylander (+4500)
- Mitch Marner (+5000)
Matthews has broken through 40 or more goals in three of his first five seasons. He accomplished 41 goals in just 52 games in a shortened season. There’s no surprise to see him at the top of the odds list to lead all goal scorers this year.
The tandem of Matthews and Marner remains one of the best in the league. For Marner, he’s recorded 255 assists across his first five seasons. He had 98 assists alone across a total of 114 games in the last two years.
As for sprinkling a small amount on one of the longshots from Toronto, it’s really hard to see anybody outscore Matthews. In the case Matthews would, unfortunately, go down, Marner would be the next-best bet with the shot volume he produces.
Sports Betting Recommendations
- Under 106.5 total points (-105, DraftKings)
- Top Goalscorer – Auston Matthews (+300, DraftKings)
Until the Stanley Cup hex goes away, it’s hard to recommend taking them. That also stands for the conference winner, which hasn’t happened since the 1962-63 season. In fact, the only time they’ve taken a division since that period was the Northeast in 1999-2000. Overall, the futures odds feel a bit too high for an extremely tough Atlantic division.
One of the best top goalscorer bets on the whole list is Matthews at +300. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl from Edmonton may continue to balance themselves out and Alex Ovechkin may have reached his peak at scoring rate.