Sunday night’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will essentially mean the same thing for both teams. Both will want the ‘W’ because it brings them a step closer to the playoffs. But both will also want the win to prove something to the rest of the NFL. For the Bills, a win solidifies them as one of the NFL’s elite teams this season.
But for the Chiefs, a win will remind fans that they have been and still are one of the NFL’s elite teams.
Revenge will not be on anyone’s mind on the Buffalo sideline. Nor will anyone on either sideline be thinking of the game as a rematch of last year’s AFC title game. No, it will just be another game both want to win to get them to their desired goal, Super Bowl LVI.
So—who’s going to get it?
Buffalo Bills Vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, October 10, 8:20 PM ET
|Best Bills Odds||Best Chiefs Odds|
|Spread||+2.5 (-105)||BetMGM||-2.5 (-115)||BetRivers|
|Total||Over 56.5 (-110)||BetMGM||Under 56.5 (-109)||BetRivers|
As the game reaches closer to kickoff, sportsbooks may offer bonuses or odds boosts for the Sunday Night Football contest. These can feature boosts on specific game props, such as the number of passing touchdowns by a quarterback or yards gained by a running back or wide receiver.
After playing and losing to the Chiefs twice last season, the Bills should have a decent idea of what they need to do if they want to win this time. For one, the offense will need to bring its ‘A’ game. You can never score too many points against a team as capable as Kansas City. With how the Bills offense is playing right now, scoring points will not be an issue.
Josh Allen appears to have bounced back from a slow start and has been throwing the ball well the last two games. He has gone from completing less than 60 percent of his passes in the first two games to over 70 percent in the last two. Yes, one of those was against a poor Texans defense, but the other was against a decent Washington defense.
Unlike last season when the Bills struggled to run the ball, the Buffalo offense has the fifth-best rushing attack in the NFL this season.
But that is not the only way in which this year’s Bills are different. Last season, their defense was good enough to handle most teams—just not the elite ones like Kansas City. But this season, through four games, they have the No. 1 defense (total yards and scoring) in the league.
However, to be fair, they have yet to play an offense even remotely close to what the Chiefs offense is capable of. The Bills defense could be primed and ready for an offense like Kansas City has to tear them apart…. or it could be as good as it looks and dominate the Chiefs offense.
Kansas City Chiefs
If Chiefs fans are feeling a sense of déjà vu this season—that is understandable. The strategy appears to be the same as it was back in 2018, play terrible defense but score so much that it will not matter. While that worked well enough in ’18 to get them to the AFC title game, it does not appear to be going nearly as well this season.
Back in ’18, the Chiefs did not lose their second game until Week 11. This season, they lost their second inside the first month of the season. Offensively, things are going well. Patrick Mahomes is averaging close to 300 yards a game throwing the ball. The run game is not fantastic, but it is not bad either (130.3 yards a game; 8th in the league).
As for points, they are putting up 33.5 per game.
With an offense like that, the Chiefs should be 4-0 and in control of their division. Instead, their defense is giving up almost 440 yards a game and 31 points. It does not matter how you try to move the ball, either. They are terrible against the pass (291.8 yards/game allowed) and run (146.0 yards/game allowed).
However, as bad as the numbers make things look for the defense, it is fair to wonder if they are a product of their schedule (Browns, Ravens, Chargers, and Eagles). On the other hand, Buffalo has had it relatively easy against the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and the Texans.
Sports Betting Recommendation
- Bills +2.5 (-105, BetMGM)
It is hard to go against the Kansas City Chiefs, but that might be prudent in this case. Buffalo is playing too well on both sides of the ball. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will still put up some points. But the Bills defense is good enough to slow them down a little.
The Chiefs defense, though, does not look like one that can slow down the Bills offense.
So—how should you bet? The best bet in this game is the over; there may be 60 points in the first half alone with the potential in both offenses. As for who will win, go with the Bills against the spread and via the moneyline.
Kansas City is not playing its best football right now, but Buffalo is.