After dominating the Kansas City Chiefs last week, it is safe to say that the Buffalo Bills are on a high. While it is well-deserved, one of two things tends to happen after teams win big games like the Bills did last week. One, they go into their next game unfocused and thinking all they need to do to win is show up, or two, they stayed grounded and pound their next opponent as well. If the Bills do go into Nashville unfocused, it will not be hard to imagine Derrick Henry and the Titans will be more than happy to bring the Bills’ winning streak to an end. Let’s examine all the angles in this Bills vs Titans betting preview.
Buffalo Bills At Tennessee Titans – Monday, October 18 – 8:15 PM ET
|Best Bills Odds||Best Titans Odds|
|Spread||-5.5 (-110)||BetMGM||+5.5 (-105)||DraftKings|
|Total||Over 53 (-110)||Caesars||Under 54 (-110)||BetMGM|
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Bills Rolling On Offense And Defense
Since their Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills have been doing everything right. The offense has been rolling with 39 points a game throughout their win streak. Factor in the stingiest defense in the league (251.8 yards and 12.8 points per game allowed; both first in the league), and it is not surprising that they are 4-1.
If anything, it is a little surprising that they are not undefeated.
It didn’t help that Josh Allen got off to a slow start with lackluster games against the Steelers and Dolphins, but since then, he has thrown for over 900 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception. While success in the passing game is expected, the same is not true for the running game.
Last season, the Bills averaged just 107.7 yards a game on the ground (20th in the NFL). Through five games this season, they are averaging 140.4, good enough for fifth-best.
If the Bills have a weakness, it is their offensive line. Heading into Week 6, Pro Football Focus has them graded 17th. Allen has only been sacked five times. Three were by the Steelers, so they cannot be too bad if he has only been sacked twice in the last four games. However, if they were to face someone with a strong pass rush, things could get ugly.
Can The Titans’ Defense Step Up?
On the surface, Tennessee doesn’t appear to be an overly impressive team. Its three wins were not dominant by any stretch of the imagination. At least one of them should have been (last week against the Jaguars). While one loss came at the hands of the only undefeated team in the league (Arizona Cardinals), the other came against one of the worst (New York Jets).
The recipe for success in their wins has been just what fans should expect it to be — hand the ball to Derrick Henry. Except for the Arizona game where the Titans fell behind early, he has gotten at least 28 carries and gained 100+ yards in those four games. Typically, when he runs well and the Titans control the ball, they win games.
So, what happened against the Jets? He had 157 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries, but the Titans still lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The issue was not Henry. Not having either of their top receivers (A.J. Brown, Julio Jones) certainly hurt the passing game, but the main issue was the defense. Both of New York’s second-half touchdown drives involved big plays (a 43-yard pass interference call and a 29-yard reception) or was a big play (a 53-yard catch and run).
Their defense has been their Achilles heel the last few seasons, and it looks like that may be the case this season as well. Tennessee has struggled to slow down opposing offenses (377.4 yards/game allowed; 21st) or keep them out of the end zone (26 points/game; 24th).
Sports Betting Recommendations
- Bills ML (-238, BetRivers)
- Bills -5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Bills-Titans Over 53 (-110, Caesars)
With how the Bills are playing in all facets of the game, it is hard to see the Titans winning. Buffalo is clicking on all cylinders on offense, and the Tennessee defense will struggle to slow it down. The Titans’ best chance is to keep Josh Allen and the Bills offense off the field as much as possible.
With Derrick Henry running the ball, that is possible. Yes, Buffalo’s run defense is ranked third in the league and allows just 78.4 yards a game, but it also has yet to play a team with a dynamic running back. If Henry can get rolling and the passing game can help out a little, it is not hard to imagine the Titans scoring some points.
With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones expected to play, maybe quarterback Ryan Tannehill can work some magic with the passing game. Titans supporters will also point to last season’s win over the Bills in Week 5 as proof Tennessee can pull off the upset. But the Bills’ defense was not good last season, nor could the offense run the ball well.
Based on everything we have seen from both teams this season, Buffalo should win with relative ease. So, take the Bills to win via the point spread. Tennessee will keep it exciting but will lose by more than a touchdown.
As for the total, it is easy to see the over getting covered. Buffalo will do most of the work, and Tennessee should contribute enough to make up the difference.