The Buffalo Bills are now the Super Bowl favorite at many sportsbooks. For example, DraftKings lists them at the top with +500 odds. However, while they beat a poor Miami Dolphins team last week, 26-11, they did not dominate the game as fans expected.
This week, they are an even bigger favorite on several sportsbook apps against the Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5 on PROLINE+). Will they dominate this time or just barely cover the spread?
Jacksonville got dominated last week in Seattle. Is there any chance they fare better in Buffalo?
Sportsbook Comparison For Bills Vs Jaguars Odds
|Sportsbook||BUF Spread||JAC Spread||BUF Moneyline||JAC Moneyline||Total|
|DraftKings||-14.5 (-105)||+14.5 (-115)||-900||+600||48.5|
|BetMGM||-14.5 (-110)||+14.5 (-110)||-1000||+660||48.5|
|PROLINE+||-13.5 (-125)||+13.5 (+105)||-1000||+650||47.5|
Bills Need To Eat Their Wheaties After Dolphins Effort
After their season-opening loss to the Steelers, Buffalo (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) cruised through their next five opponents before losing again. Had quarterback Josh Allen not slipped on that fourth-down conversion late in the game, the Bills could have beat the Tennessee Titans.
Following that loss, the Bills have three games in a row against some of the NFL’s worst. That included last week’s game against the Miami Dolphins.
Similar to the Dolphins, the biggest threat to the Bills will not be this week’s opponent, Jacksonville, but themselves. With the No. 1 scoring offense (32.7 points/game) and defense (15.6 pts/gm), controlling a lackluster Jaguars offense (27th in scoring, 17.6 pts/gm) should not be too much of a challenge.
But that does not mean Buffalo can take the day off. While Trevor Lawrence has not played as well as he did in college, he is a talented young quarterback capable of taking advantage of the Bills’ defense should it slack off.
On the offensive side of the ball, Buffalo needs to live up to their potential. They have an MVP-caliber quarterback behind center in Josh Allen, three excellent wide receivers (should Cole Beasley play and Emmanuel Sanders avoid another goose egg), and an effective running game (No. 8 in the league averaging 126.6 yds/gm).
Buffalo’s primary concern in this game will probably be for everyone to come out of it healthy. So, it would not be shocking to see them get out to an early lead and then play it conservatively.
Do The Jaguars Have Any Advantages To Win?
It has been a rough year for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They did not get their first win until Week 6, and that was a close one against a struggling Miami team. They followed that up with a dreadful game against the Seahawks that made Geno Smith look like an All-Pro. With how the season has gone, it is hard to say when they will get win number two.
Offensively, they have probably been better than expected, and they have Trevor Lawrence to thank for that. The talented rookie is doing what he can with an offense short on playmakers. So far, the offense ranks 17th in total yards (349.3 yds/gm). But they have a hard time turning those yards into points (17.6 pts/gm; 27th overall).
When your offense is average, and your defense is one of the worst (29 pts/gm allowed; 28th overall), it is hard to win games or even be competitive.
They will need to figure out some way to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills’ passing game. Their pass rush will probably get the job done (11 sacks so far this season); the Bills’ offensive line has only given up eight. Since teams have averaged close to 280 yards per game through the air, they will probably have to lean on the offense.
If the Jags can get the run game on track early, maybe they can eat a lot of time off the clock. But the Bills have the fifth-best run defense in the league (86.3 yds/gm allowed).
Sports Betting Prediction
- Bills -13.5 (-125, PROLINE+)
For the Jaguars to win, they need Trevor Lawrence to carve up the Bills defense like an FCS team. If James Robinson could chip in 100+ yards in the ground game, that would help. The defense needs to turn Josh Allen back into the guy that struggled immensely his first two years in the NFL.
But none of that is going to happen. As long as the Buffalo Bills don’t implode, they will have no trouble winning this game and covering the two-touchdown spread.