Week 11 NFL action features the Indianapolis Colts (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) traveling to upstate New York and facing the Buffalo Bills (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS). The Bills are in first place in the AFC East and the Colts in second place for the AFC South. Moreover, FanDuel has released its Week 11 odds and the Bills are 7.5-point favorites over the Colts this weekend.
The Bills embarrassed the Jets at MetLife Stadium to the tune of a 45-17 score. The chance to host a legitimate contender like the Colts will be a particularly interesting challenge. The total for this game is set at a modest 49.5 points this weekend.
Sportsbook Comparison For Colts vs Bills
(American / Decimal)
|IND Spread||BUF Spread||IND Moneyline||BUF Moneyline||Total|
|DraftKings||+7 (-105 / 1.95)||-7 (-115 / 1.87)||+245 / 3.45||-310 / 1.32||50|
|FanDuel||+7.5 (-118 / 1.85)||-7.5 (-104 / 1.96)||+265 / 3.65||-330 / 1.30||50|
|PROLINE+||+7.5 (-118 / 1.85)||-7.5 (+100 / 2.00)||+260 / 3.60||-323 / 1.31||50.5|
Taylor Needs To Keep Rolling For Colts
Running back Jonathan Taylor has proven to be one of the top athletes in the position with the NFL. If the Colts want to win this game, they will need to let him pave the way to a victory. In Taylor’s last two games – both wins – he has rushed for well over 100 total yards in each game.
The Colts got off to a slow start this season with an 0-3 record. Not coincidentally, Taylor had his three worst games of the season. In fact, the Colts have five wins this season. In all five games, Taylor ran for over 100 yards in each. This is to say, if Taylor does not get rolling offensively, they will lose.
Bills Return To Form In Jets Blowout
Quarterback Josh Allen is the MVP favorite across the board and PointsBet has him at +250. He is a rare talent that can be just as dangerous with his arm as he is with his legs. He is currently second among quarterbacks in rushing yards and has 3 rushing touchdowns. Josh Allen is a dynamic athlete that can take over a game. The Bills are pretty big favorites in this game because of Allen and his top receiver, Stefon Diggs.
If the Bills can avoid turnovers and win the field position battle, the game becomes especially difficult for the Colts to compete. Moreover, Buffalo’s running game has been mostly atrocious for the majority of the season. However, one back was inserted into the offense and provided a spark – Matthew Breida. He likely earned more playing time this week against Indianapolis.
Colts vs Bills Sports Betting Pick
- Colts +7.5
- -114 (1.88), PointsBet
After starting the season 0-3, the Colts are 5-2. The margin on this spread is quite large. At 7.5, that hook (or extra half point) is very important – I am not sure how much longer that will last. Many sportsbooks are already moving down to an even 7-point favorite. As the week progresses, sharps will continue betting on the Colts at that number.
The sharp play is on the Colts +7.5 and there is some value on the Colts to win outright at +265. Indianapolis can control the ball and utilize the best running back in the NFL right now. Quarterback Carson Wentz is pretty inconsistent so the best bet for Colts vs Bills is going to be the Indy at +7.5 rather than taking a stab at the big moneyline price.