The Canadian Football League concludes the 2021 season with the 108th Grey Cup between Winnipeg (12-3) and Hamilton (10-6) on Sunday night. It’s the best matchup the league could get with the best overall team taking on a squad that’s been the hottest down the stretch.
There’s also an interesting wrinkle of the Bombers, the best regular-season team, having to play the Ticats at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton. Let’s dive into the matchup and make some betting predictions for the big game.
Sportsbook Comparison For CFL Grey Cup Odds
(American / Decimal)
|WPG Spread||HAM Spread||WPG Moneyline||HAM Moneyline||Total|
|DraftKings||-3 (-105 / 1.95)||+3 (-115 / 1.87)||-150 / 1.67||+130 / 2.30||44.5|
|Caesars||-3 (-110 / 1.91)||+3 (-110 / 1.91)||-150 / 1.67||+130 / 2.30||44|
|FanDuel||-2.5 (-130 / 1.77)||+2.5 (+110 / 2.10)||-152 / 1.66||+130 / 2.30||44.5|
|PROLINE+||-3.5 (+110 / 2.10)||+3.5 (-132 / 1.76)||-149 / 1.67||+125 / 2.25||44.5|
Sunday, 6:00 PM ET – Winnipeg vs. Hamilton (-3)
TV: TSN in Canada, ESPN2 in the United States
It’s been an incredible season for Winnipeg, who comes into the championship game with a 12-3 overall record. Two of those losses were at the end of the season with nothing to play for. But it was a nailbiter in a cold, snowy West Final that eventually saw the Blue Bombers pull through midway in the fourth quarter, 21-17.
Quarterback Zach Collaros was efficient with 81 percent of his passes completed, but three of his four missed attempts were interceptions. Luckily within the elements, Winnipeg was able to lean on running back Andrew Harris. He had 23 carries for a whopping 136 yards and one score.
Blue Bombers Must Prepare For Another Tough Defense
Winnipeg saw a difficult defense in Saskatchewan, and things won’t get easier against Hamilton. Statistically, the Ticats allowed 84 total points in the air (3rd-best), have 17 interceptions compared to 14 touchdowns allowed, and feature the best rush defense in yards allowed per game (79.6 yds/gm).
Harris shouldn’t expect another outing as he had in the West Final. On the plus side for the Bombers, the weather is expected to be significantly better. We’d also expect Collaros, who has been the most consistent quarterback in the CFL, to throw three picks again. Or the entire team turning it over six total times for that matter.
Ticats Make Change At Quarterback
Down early in the East Final against Toronto, Hamilton made a change at quarterback. Jeremiah Masoli, who has been hot down the stretch, was benched for Dane Evans. Evans completed all 16 pass attempts, collected 249 yards in the air, and looked fantastic. Now he’ll be starting in place of Masoli in the championship game.
There may be drama at who’s under center, but this could be looked at as a net positive. Winnipeg has the best pass defense by a significant margin, allowing just 54 points in the air. Hamilton has a crack at this defense with two quarterbacks that have looked good this season. If Evans struggles, they have the ability to jump over to Masoli.
CFL Grey Cup Odds Movement (Updated For Saturday)
Winnipeg is the expected favorite for the Grey Cup, but it’s within a respectable margin. Up until Saturday afternoon, the Bombers have hovered around the field goal margin. For the most part, sportsbooks will set the line at -3 or -3.5.
At times, the line has dipped to -2.5, like it is on FanDuel at the time of publishing. With the odds set at -130 (1.77) for the favorites, that means it can flip to a higher spread. DraftKings may see a drop to -2.5 if money continues to come in on Hamilton that’s currently set at a full field goal (-115, or 1.87).
CFL Grey Cup Sports Betting Recommendations
- Winnipeg ML
- -149 (1.67), PROLINE+
- Under 44.5
- -115 (1.87), FanDuel
- Winnipeg -1 1st Half
- -110 (1.91), DraftKings
Not that I want to jinx our betting predictions before the big contest, but Toronto Sports Media has gone a perfect 6-0 during the CFL playoff games. We’ll try to continue that streak by taking Winnipeg at the moneyline and first half, and the under for the total game.
It’s not really worth playing around with the spread. There’s a solid chance this game could finish within a field goal. A better play is taking more of the juice and grabbing Winnipeg straight up. Another angle is taking Hamilton +3.5 over at PROLINE+ with -132 (1.76) odds, but it doesn’t feel as safe.
After a rusty start to the West Final, expect Winnipeg to come out swinging and take a small lead at halftime. Hamilton may have issues with the quarterback change, especially facing the best CFL passing defense. Lastly, it’s been a positive trend all season, so why not conclude with taking the under in what should ultimately be a low-scoring contest.