Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Week 16 Game Pick And Prop Bets

The Buffalo Bills are teetering on the edge of a playoff spot. But week after week they are a confounding puzzle of an NFL football team, either glimmering with Super Bowl potential or bumbling their way through four quarters of mess. Heading into Week 16, they are one game back of first place in the AFC East.

Toronto Sports Media continues its season-long coverage of the Bills, and we’ll dive into their big rematch against the New England Patriots. The Pats took the first meeting just a few weeks ago on a very cold and windy night where quarterback Mac Jones threw just three total passes.

Kickoff is on Sunday, Dec. 26, at 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.

Sportsbook Comparison For Bills vs. Patriots Odds

SPORTSBOOKPOINT SPREADMONEYLINETOTAL
DraftKingsBills +2.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Patriots +2.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Bills +115 / 2.15
Patriots -135 / 1.74
Over 43.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Under 43.5 (-110 / 1.91)
BetMGMBills +2.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Patriots +2.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Bills +115 / 2.15
Patriots -139 / 1.72
Over 43.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Under 43.5 (-110 / 1.91)
CaesarsBills +2.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Patriots +2.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Bills +115 / 2.15
Patriots -135 / 1.74
Over 43.5 (-110 / 1.91)
Under 43.5 (-110 / 1.91)
PROLINE+Bills +1.5 (+105 / 2.05)
Patriots -1.5 (-125 / 1.80)
Bills +120 / 2.20
Patriots -143 / 1.70
Over 43.5 (-112 / 1.89)
Under 43.5 (-106 / 1.94)

Sports Betting Pick For Bills vs. Patriots

Entering Week 5 of the 2021 season, the Patriots had lost six of their last eight games dating back to the thwarted 2020 pandemic-strained season. There were whisperings, even in some pubs in New England, that coach Bill Belichick may not be able to win without Tom Brady.

The reports of The Hoodie’s demise were greatly exaggerated.

The Pats have won eight of ten, including a seven-game winning streak that pushed the Red-White-and-Blues near the precipice of the conference. Even after a loss to the Colts last weekend, Belichick has his team only one game back of the Chiefs for the top seed in the AFC. They have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they are especially impressive in defending the passing game.

That could present a problem for Buffalo, who ranks seventh in the league in passing behind the arm of quarterback Josh Allen. A battle of attrition, where the Pats can take away the Bills’ strength is exactly what Belichick wants.

Earlier this month, New England out-muscled the Bills, 14-10, in blustery conditions in Buffalo. In that game, the Pats ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards. On defense, they held Allen to 145 yards through the air, and he completed just 15-of-30 passes. The Patriots will likely matriculate the ball the same way on offense and rely on their stingy defensive unit to flummox Allen and the Bills.

Take New England at -135 (1.74) on the moneyline. At the moment, those odds can be found on DraftKings and Caesars. The Pats make it 2-for-2 against the Bills.

Top Prop Bets For Bills vs. Patriots

Bills to score under 16.5 points (+185 via BetMGM)

In three of their last four losses, the Bills have sputtered offensively. They scored just 6 points at Jacksonville, 15 points vs. Indy in Week 11, and 10 points against the Patriots earlier this month. New England will control the clock and try to make this a possession/field position battle.

Allen can perform anxiously when his team is struggling to move the ball and/or behind the score. That’s when he is prone to picks, which he has 12 of this season.

Patriots -2.5 AND under 43.5 (+250 via Caesars Sportsbook)

For the same reasons outlined above, put money down on Belichick and the Patriots winning a grind-em-out game, something like 19-10.

Bills team total TDs under 2.5 (-155 via DraftKings)

Not a real sexy bet, but there’s really no way I can see the Bills punching the football into the end zone three times.

About the Author

Dan Holmes

Dan Holmes is a contributor to Toronto Sports Media and has written three books about sports. He previously worked for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball. He enjoys writing, running, and lemon bars.
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