Are the Buffalo Bills (9-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) back? It sure seems that way as the Bills are firmly in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. After being beatdown by New England earlier in December, they rebounded in the rematch last week to take control once again. The team that everyone was growing fond of to win the Super Bowl is rounding into form at the perfect time.
Traveling to Buffalo is the Atlanta Falcons (7-8 SU, 4-6 ATS). Kickoff is slated for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, Jan. 2. The Bills are trending toward being a huge 14.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks. At the publication of this article, DraftKings still had them at an even 14 points with -115 odds (1.87).
Taking the game itself out of it, there are no really strong sports betting picks for this game. The Bills are not worth taking as 14 point favorites and moneyline bets won’t win you much money at all with the heavy favorites.
With that, we have a suite of player prop bets and anytime touchdown scorer bets to choose from. Expect the Bills to win this game outright and probably big. However, the Falcons are somehow still in the playoff hunt. Don’t expect them to just roll over.
Falcons vs. Bills Week 17 Player Props
Cordarrelle Patterson – Anytime TD scorer
+150 (2.50), DraftKings
Bills vs. WRs
- 1,785 yards given up to opposing WRs. Least amount of yards given up in the league (by a lot).
- Only 5 touchdowns were given up to opposing receivers this year, least in the NFL. The next closest team is the Rams who have given up 8!
Bills vs. TEs
- Only 3 touchdowns were given up to opposing tight ends. Tied for fourth least in the league.
- Only 524 receiving yards were yielded to opposing tight ends (4th least in the NFL).
Bills vs. RBs
- Tied for the 6th most rushing touchdowns yielded to opposing running backs (13).
- They struggle against the run (89.0 rush yards allowed per game) and running backs are extremely productive when catching out of the backfield. Allowing .3 receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs tied for 4th worst in the NFL.
All of that data screams that the Falcons are going to struggle to throw the ball. Kyle Pitts is their best weapon who will have a tough game if the Bills show out as they have recently. Cordarrelle Patterson will be fed the ball early and often while showcasing impressive receiving chops.
Gabriel Davis – Anytime TD scorer
+225 (3.25), BetMGM
The Falcons’ secondary is, to put it simply, horrible. For comparison, the Bills’ secondary gave up 5 touchdowns to wide receivers in 17 games. The Falcons have given up 18, tied for the third-most in the league. Quarterback Josh Allen looked phenomenal throwing the ball last week and Gabriel Davis seems to be much more involved in the offense.
Davis was out last weekend due to COVID and is expected to be back on Sunday. Prior to the missed game, he had two straight games with five receptions and had a combined 128 yards and 3 touchdowns.