The New York Jets (4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) are double-digit underdogs (+16.5 at BetMGM) to the Buffalo Bills (10-6 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) in Sunday’s NFL regular-season finale. While the Jets have been playing better in recent weeks, fans may want to think twice before them and the points against the Bills.
Buffalo has been a double-digit favorite six times this season and has gone 3-1-2 ATS.
Okay, the Jets gave the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a run for their money last week. Good for them. Yes, many playoff-bound teams are resting key players. However, the Bills still have something to play for this week, making it unlikely Buffalo does not put its best foot forward this weekend.
Sportsbook Comparison For Jets vs. Bills Odds
(American / Decimal)
|BUF Spread||NYJ Spread||BUF Moneyline||NYJ Moneyline||Total|
|DraftKings||-16.5 (-110 / 1.91)||+16.5 (-110 / 1.91)||-1000 / 1.10||+650 / 7.50||41|
|BetMGM||-16.5 (-110 / 1.91)||+16.5 (-110 / 1.91)||-1200 / 1.08||+750 / 8.50||40.5|
|PROLINE+||-15.5 (-120 / 1.83)||+15.5 (+100 / 2.00)||-1111 / 1.09||+700 / 8.00||40.5|
Playoff Seeding Potentially On The Line For The Bills
Buffalo has clinched a playoff spot, but the team has yet to lock up the AFC East. Since they own the tiebreaker with New England, as long as they beat the Jets, they win the AFC East no matter how the Patriots-Dolphins game plays out. That will lock them into the No. 4 seed. Should they win and Cincinnati loses, the Bills will move up to the No. 3 seed.
Since the Bengals are resting quarterback Joe Burrow, it does not appear as if they are too concerned about beating the Browns. Running back Joe Mixon and defensive end Trey Hendrickson will also miss the game. However, the Browns will be without Baker Mayfield, which could be a blessing in disguise since he has been playing hurt all season.
Bills QB Josh Allen looked terrible passing last week against Atlanta, completing just 11 of 26 passes for 120 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Luckily, the run game clicked, including Allen running two touchdowns in, and they got the win anyway. A total of 233 yards were gathered by the team overall. Devin Singletary led the group with 110 yards and 2 scores himself.
The Bills will want to secure the division title and see their offense play better than it did last week. However, once the game appears secure, it would not be shocking if the Bills started pulling Josh Allen and other key players.
Don’t Overlook The New York Jets
This season, the Jets are not a good team, but they have been playing better recently. A few weeks ago, they gave a good Miami team a run for its money before losing 31-24. In Week 16, rookie running back Michael Carter showed his potential with 118 yards on 16 carries to lead the team to a 26-21 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last week, quarterback Zach Wilson nearly succeeded in upsetting the defending Super Bowl champions only to see Tom Brady pull the win out for the Bucs in the final seconds of the game.
The Jets began the season with the fifth-youngest roster in the NFL and a rookie head coach. So, growing pains were expected, of which they had plenty. However, the upside to growing pains is the potential for significant improvement. That has been the case for several rookies – especially Wilson.
A strong showing for New York in their final game would go a long way towards building confidence and hope for next year. After leading the Buccaneers for almost the entire game last week, the Jets will be looking to end the season on a high note by upsetting the Bills.
Jets vs. Bills Sports Betting Analysis
Buffalo beat the Jets 45-17 back in Week 10, but Wilson was not behind center for that game. That may not have made a difference in that game, but it likely will this week. However, whether the Bills cover the spread could come down to how long the team keeps its key starters in the game and/or how well Buffalo plays right out of the gate.
Should Josh Allen come out hot, the Bills could get out to a big lead, and he and other key starters will be on the bench for the fourth quarter. If the Jets can build off last week’s strong showing against the Bucs, there is a chance they will make this one interesting. But if they do not, the Bills win and cover with ease.