The PGA Tour continues the Florida Swing this week with its flagship tournament THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. This sports betting preview features an overview of the Stadium Course, the latest odds available for top players in the event, and our recommendations to consider.
(Decimal / American)
|Top 10 Finish|
|Top 20 Finish|
|Jon Rahm||11.0 / +1000||2.2 / +120||1.61 / -165||1.17 / -600|
|Collin Morikawa||13.0 / +1200||2.8 / +180||1.87 / -115||1.28 / -360|
|Justin Thomas||13.0 / +1200||2.2 / +120||1.61 / -165||1.18 / -550|
|Viktor Hovland||17.0 / +1600||3.25 / +225||2.0 / +100||1.28 / -360|
|Patrick Cantlay||17.0 / +1600||3.25 / +225||2.0 / +100||1.26 / -390|
|Rory McIlroy||19.0 / +1800||2.8 / +180||1.87 / -115||1.22 / -450|
THE PLAYERS Championship Course: TPC Sawgrass
Pete Dye’s Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass measures just over 7,200 yards and plays as a par 72. While not a terribly long track, the howling Florida winds and lightning-fast greens certainly make this a challenging test. Considering there are over 80 bunkers and 15 water hazards, finding fairways and sticking these small greens will be crucial.
With 47 of the world’s top 50 golfers teeing it up this week, this year’s tournament absolutely fits the bill of the toughest field in golf. From a betting perspective, it’s typically a tournament won by one of the bigger-name players at the top of their game but we have seen a few 100/1 or better longshots come out of nowhere and snag the trophy. That makes the task of choosing an outright winner a bit tricky.
When betting golf I tend to steer clear of favourites. With such a strong field I feel it’s best to hunt for value a little further down the board. I certainly won’t be surprised to see a top-flight player win this week but playing such short odds in this stacked field? No thanks. It just feels like a good spot to target some mid-range guys for strong finishes and add a few triple-digit flyers to the card.
And with that, here’s my card for THE PLAYERS.
Mid-Range Player Selections For THE PLAYERS Championship
Billy Horschel (Live Odds: )
Billy Horschel is on a heater. The Florida native has made eight straight cuts and has rattled off six top 25s in his last seven starts including a T2 last week at Bay Hill. Horschel got off to a rocky start on Sunday, but stormed back into contention. He finished just one stroke out of a playoff with winner Scottie Scheffler. That type of tenacity and grinder mindset will be important against this deep field.
He doesn’t have the best course history at TPC Sawgrass, but he’s hungry for a win here in his home state and will stay motivated until the final putt drops. He’s worth a shot on the outright win at 41.0 on PROLINE+ (56.0 on DraftKings), but I’d be focusing on him primarily in the top 10 (5.5) and top 20 (3.0) markets.
Gary Woodland (Live Odds: )
Another golfer trending in the right direction is 2019 U.S. Open Champion Gary Woodland. Fresh off back-to-back top fives at both the Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Woodland is showing signs he has regained his elite striking status of a few years ago. The major champion and his signature stinger ball flight can keep his tee shots under the Florida winds.
Woodland typically shows up at the toughest courses with strongest fields. The PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass fits that bill. Again, I’m looking at him for an outright win at 101.0 on PROLINE+, but would also be targeting him in the Top 10 (9.0) and Top 20 (3.0) markets where available.
Longshot Option For THE PLAYERS Championship
Keith Mitchell (Live Odds: )
My favourite triple-digit bomb this week is Keith Mitchell at a very enticing +15000. Mitchell has been one of my go-to bets for the past year as sportsbooks continue to price him well below golfers of the same caliber. With one tour victory already under his belt, Mitchell has consistently shown up in big spots with strong finishes.
His biggest asset will be his long, straight drives, as TPC Sawgrass will punish any errant tee shot. Water and trees come into play on almost every hole. He’s as long as the longest guys on tour with better accuracy numbers off the tee. That will be a big advantage this week. Look for him to take his game to the next level with another solid showing this week.
THE PLAYERS Championship Odds And Picks (Live Odds)
- Billy Horschel (0.50 units)
- Top 10 – (1 unit)
- Top 20 – (1 unit)
- Gary Woodland (0.40 units)
- Top 10 – (0.75 units)
- Top 20 – (0.75 units)
- Keith Mitchell (0.25 units)
- Top 10 – (0.5 units)
- Top 20 – (0.5 units)
Those are my best bets this week. What are yours?